MSearchGroove

By Brad Flora

The fine minds at Juniper Research have released a new report on mobile user-generated content predicting more than a tenfold increase in revenues over the next five years. (More details in this release. Download the white paper here.) Juniper says its findings are based on “interviews, case studies and analysis from representatives of some of the leading organizations in the growing mobile user-generated content industry.” You’ve got to wonder just who they were talking to (and how reliable their data is) because the report’s projections are dizzying, to say the least.

The highlights:

• End-user generated revenue from social networking, dating, and personal content delivery will increase 900 percent in the next five years–from $572 million in 2007 to $5.7 billion in 2012.
• Social networking is going to account for about 50 percent of that revenue.
• The number of active mobile social network users is going to shoot from 14 million in 2007 to nearly 600 million in 2012.
• The number of downloads from personal content delivery sites is also going to skyrocket, from 200 million in 2007 to a whopping 8 billion in 2012 (That’s a 3900 percent increase, in case you were wondering.)
• While mobile dating services and chat rooms account for 57 percent of current user-generated revenue, in 2012 they’ll comprise just 27 percent of the pie. (Juniper doesn’t say what will take up the slack. Just about anything would be an improvement, in my opinion.)
• Backbreaking data charges will continue to be a problem for widespread “service adoption.” (How seriously can one take this last point in light of the previous projections?)

Needless to say, Juniper’s pretty upbeat on mobile social networking. While I saw no mention of jetpacks or flying cars in their projections, I wouldn’t be surprised to find them in the full report, based on the optimism of these numbers.

So what do you think? Is there really this much of an appetite for mobile social networking? And what sorts of services do you think will take up the space vacated by dating services and chat rooms, if their share of the market does in fact tumble?

And while we think that over - how does one square such rosy revenue projections with Facebook’s recent monetization dilemma? This post at a digital student marketing blog in the U.K. reveals “shockingly poor click-throughs” on Facebook – a complaint picked up by Valleywag as well…

Peggy adds: Meanwhile, this article at The Guardian suggests mobile operators should focus on building an audience for social networks now – or be left behind when Internet players make their way to mobile users without them. T-Mobile, Orange, and Vodafone can read the writing on the wall – which is why they were so quick to seal deals with the likes of YouTube and Bebo. (Facebook is also available to mobile users in the U.S. via the AT&T, Verizon, and Sprint/Nextel networks.) Mobile operator and media company 3 has developed an impressive hybrid approach that combines all the usual suspects with self-made services such as SeeMeTV, which encourages users to upload and share video clips for cash) and MoKo, a subscription social networking service.)

But the article misses an important point: Mobile operators do well to mobilize social networks we know from the Internet, but they must do one better if they want to add (and extract) value from these relationships. They should be thinking about premium services – and not just ways to monetize traffic through mobile advertising.

During one of our regular Vulcan mind melds, Mark Donovan, an M:Metrics senior analyst, made the observation that many of the current highfliers will likely “crash and burn as it becomes obvious communication, not technology, is the killer app.” In his view, too many companies are focused on monetizing their eyeballs, when they should be thinking of new ways to capture them. Building communities around games or music is all very merchandising-oriented; it’s not what creates sticky and robust communities.

Translated: Mobile operators can best add value to these services by supporting a broad range of interaction – even better if it’s cross-operator. And provide users platforms, tools, and a hands-off approach to the social networks they create. Any mobile operator that assumes users are passive consumers needs to get with it. Ignore their need to create, share, and socialize, and you’re leaving money on the table.

• Posted in
• Web 2.0, Mobile Content, M:Metrics

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