What is Google’s strategy for mobile? The fact that we must divine its strategy from the clues and leaks it leaves in the blogosphere is already unsettling; even worse is the reality that we can still only guess its true intentions. Via the Wall Street Journal and other credible sources it seems ever more likely that Google will bid for the 700Mhz spectrum license on 3 December when the FCC begins preliminary bids for these redundant 2G networks. All evidence indicates that Google is set to spend up to $4.6million on the license on its own rather than as part of a consortium.The move would give the search giant the capability to build out its own mobile broadband network, but at what cost? Including the license fee, the cost of rolling out a network is being conservatively estimated (via GigaOM) at ‘at least $7 billion’ all in.

More importantly, it would put Google in direct competition with AT&T and Verizon, both of whom are chasing the spectrum to build their own wireless broadband networks. Such a license bidding war and any subsequent move to build its own network could damage Google’s existing relationships with network operators globally, many of which have already – perhaps unwittingly – surrendered the ownership of the search page to Google, thus putting Google in front and center of the mobile search experience. And let’s not forget the ongoing tension over who controls the user data.

In a word, this could all turn quite nasty. (Peggy adds: It would have been far smarter for operators to incorporate Google results into their own balanced mix of links and results. More about that in my next white paper – freely available on MSG.)

But could Google be planning to simply spend its way to the top in a sort of mobile cold war stand-off?

Some in the industry suggest that cash-rich Google could well be looking to simply out-spend the other MNOs and create its own dominant position in the mobile network market. Remember Google has some $200 billion market cap; MNOs are seeing revenues plateau as voice ARPU drops.

And what about rumours of a G-Phone and the roll out of Google’s Android operating system? I contend they are red herrings. Android is not the deal, it merely means that developers who want to be compatible with all handsets will have to write for this new OS alongside Symbian, for example.

Whatever happens, however, it should be good news for consumers and developers. Google’s megalomania at one end of the spectrum and its desire to create a more open, functional, flexible and cheaper-to-use mobile web at the other can only spur the ‘established’ mobile networks to work harder to deliver the same. And once we start down this road there will be no way back and all companies – Google included – will have to walk the talk.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, November 21st, 2007 at 12:00 pm and is filed under Mobile Advertising, Mobile Search. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.