It has been a crazy-busy, exciting week at MSG! The Mobile Advertising Research U.K. report, which combines desk research with extensive primary research and surveys to offer invaluable insight into the attitudes of people and companies across the emerging mobile advertising business ecosystem, is ready for release after receiving the final polish.

Regular readers will recall that MSG was commissioned to conduct Mobile Advertising Research UK, a project research endorsed by the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) and the Mobile Marketing Association (MMA), to expertly document the state of the mobile advertising industry in the U.K. and identify growth opportunities in the emerging mobile advertising marketplace.

The report — which combines valuable consumer insights gathered by ÆNEAS Strategy Consulting and Management (coordinated by my esteemed colleagues Tarik Fawzi and Atva van Zanten) and qualitative research based on more than 20 interviews with operators, enablers, agencies and brands contributed by MSG — marks the first in a series of region-specific reports that will include Germany (2009) and North America (2010).

During the inaugural event (Mobile Advertising Research U.K.) last week in London, Tarik and I presented an overview of key findings (documented by MSearchGroove here) and revealed the results of an online survey of over 1,000 British. consumers. Pricing is GBP 2,999 ($4,866) for the report, and a 500 GBP discount is available for MMA/IAB members, and people who attended the event. For more information, email James Cameron (james@camerjam.com) or call +44 7940 749874.

And speaking of reports, I am pleased to announce that I will provide a sneak-peak at the results of a performance analysis of voice-enabled mobile search services from search giants Google, Yahoo! & ChaCha during a special Mobile Search Masterclass in London on June 30.

By way of background, this course is part of The City University London’s Masterclass series, a collaboration between the giCentre and the Centre for Interactive Systems Research at the University. It will be run for the second year following from feedback last year and is endorsed by the Mobile Data Association (MDA). Registration is GBP295 and the organizers tell me there are still a few seats available, so email Mark Firman (mfirman@soi.city.ac.uk) to reserve your place.

Regular readers (and Twitter followers — @peggyanne & @msearchgroove) may recall that I teamed up with Peggy Albright, owner of Albright Communications and veteran writer in the wireless industry,  to research and write Pump Up The Volume: An Assessment of Voice-Enabled Web Search on the iPhone.

The complete findings will be released in July, but I can say that ChaCha, a fast-growing SMS mobile search service available in the U.S., “proved superior” to two other voice-enabled search options for the iPhone: the Google Mobile App with Voice and Vlingo for iPhone, a voice-enabled application that allows users to direct their spoken queries to Google or Yahoo! For the purposes of this study, Vlingo provided a spoken interface to the Yahoo! search engine.

To evaluate the overall performance of voice-enabled mobile services offered by ChaCha, Google and Vlingo for iPhone with Yahoo!, Peggy asked a series of 18 queries representative of six typical mobile search categories (Navigational, Directions, Information Local, Information General, Social, and Long-Tail). For each query, we evaluated nine performance characteristics including response time, results accuracy, voice recognition accuracy, number of results received, keytaps required, relevancy of the result, location awareness, use of advertising and presence of other value-added features. The study further took into account that a service could deliver its search results in the form of answers (as ChaCha offers) or as links to Web pages (which Google and Vlingo deliver); for each query tested, an accurate result could be achieved in either form.

In addition to going over some high-level results, I will also present an overview of the mobile search landscape, focusing particular attention on the 10+ categories of mobile search gaining significant traction, including multimodal (voice/visual), mobile vertical search (music/games) and social search, a people-powered search approach that effectively infuses human preferences and human judgments into computer algorithms to pinpoint relevant information and better answers.

This presentation is based on the work I did with Rudy De Waele, blogger at mTrends and dotopen founder, in preparation for a workshop on Mobile Search Future Prospects organized by JRC IPTS (Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the European Commission).

Other masterclass speakers and sessions will examine a range of topics and developments, including: mobile search statistics and surveys, key trends and developments, location services and search user interfaces and usability, and the range of content and advertising monetization models involving mobile search. I’m honored to join an impressive roster of industry authorities from companies including AmbieSense Ltd., a provider of ambient search services; Microsoft Research (Cambridge); g8wave Ltd., a mobile marketing company; and Mobile Commerce Ltd., a provider of location-based services that also possesses what the founders call a “piece of enablement” that gives them deep insight into the search queries passed through the operator portals in the U.K., and the results set returned to the user. This central position, combined with the company’s prowess in search advertising, makes MC a top address for the inside track on the quality of the mobile search experience offered by Google and Yahoo!, as well as their ability to deliver relevant results to users’ queries.

Last year, the case studies and analytics provided by Colin Bates, Mobile Commerce CTO, data also reported on MSearchGroove, provided invaluable insight into the most popular categories of mobile search queries and what users really want from their mobile search experience. The eye-opening observation: “Users are grazing, not researching. They are looking for time-fillers rather than facts, and they are using search boxes for site-finding rather than data-finding.”

It will be exciting to explore how mobile search has moved on and discuss where it is going. If you plan to attend and would like to meet up or catch up, please contact me directly (peggy@msearchgroove.com) or arrange an appointment with Andrea Henninge (andrea@msearchgroove.com). I hope to see you soon and will circle back with analysis after the event.

Back from Mobile Advertising UK (Twitter feed: #maduk) in London with new and practical insights into mobile advertising and extremely positive feedback on my report findings.

Regular readers will recall that MSG was commissioned to conduct Mobile Advertising UK, a research project research endorsed by the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) and the Mobile Marketing Association (MMA), to expertly document the state of the mobile advertising industry in the U.K. and identify growth opportunities in the emerging mobile advertising marketplace. The report - which combines valuable consumer insights gathered by ÆNEAS Strategy Consulting and Management (coordinated by my esteemed colleagues Tarik Fawzi and Atva van Zanten) and qualitative research based on 20+ interviews with operators, enablers, agencies, and brands contributed by MSG - will be formally released in July.

Pricing is GBP 2,999 ($4,866) for the report. 500 GBP discount for MMA and IAB members, and people who attended the event. For more information, email James Cameron (james@camerjam.com) or call +44 7940 749874. And while we’re at it: A huge around of applause for James, long-time MSG friend and supporter, whose Camerjam Events company successfully brought together 130+ professionals and pundits at this inaugural event sure to spread to other countries soon!

In the meantime, allow me to share some of the key findings and data points based on an online survey of 1,000+ UK mobile users. (And please follow along in the complete presentation below via SlideShare, and listen in to this audio interview (supported by the iPhone blogging app Audio Boo) via The Really Mobile Project, where I put some of the stats into perspective.)

At a glance:

• Today the mobile advertising market in the U.K. totals nearly GBP 30 million ($48 million).
• Mobile advertising accounts for only 0.16 percent of the total advertising market - which is where Internet advertising was in 1998.
• ÆNEAS Strategy forecasts that mobile advertising will see accelerated growth in four years and so account for a significant portion of advertising spending. Drivers include: A calculated growth rate of 99 percent in 2008 vs. 2007; the overall shift towards digital advertising; and increased demand for targeting, reach, and a medium that -like no other - allows advertisers to identify and track unique visitors. (For more on this unique capability and the benefits I encourage you to read my own road test of mobile analytics solutions.)
• Only 32 percent of those surveyed have a positive attitude about receiving advertising on their mobile phone. However, 64 percent said they would accept advertising is they are properly incentivized, and 70 percent said they would accept mobile advertising if they are incentivized AND in control.
• The majority of those surveyed felt 5 advertising messages per day was the limit of what they would accept.

Unsurprisingly, youth are most familiar with mobile advertising channels (specifically rich media such as MMS and in-game advertising (approaches we know from the likes of Unkasoft). What’s more a whopping 84 percent of youth surveyed has a positive attitude toward mobile advertising if incentivized. The bottom line: Acceptance of mobile advertising is right up there with TV and other more traditional media IF we can get our head around what incentives to offer and develop the mechanisms that put people in control.

No clue on the right incentives, but it’s not a given that companies need to offer cash to capture people’s attention. In the fireside chat I recorded with Rory Sutherland, Ogilvy UK Vice Chairman, we discuss the value of branded utilities and life-simplifying services. Will people accept advertising if the pay-off is less stress/more convenience? It sure looks that way!

Expert interviews:

So we know mobile advertising will be big. But what do we do in the interim, and where should we channel our investments/efforts so we can move fast when the market picks up?

No easy answers, but my interviews with companies up and down the emerging mobile advertising value chain speak volumes. Companies - in no special order - included: Orange, Vodafone, 3UK, Alcatel Lucent, Ogilvy, 4th Screen, InsideMobile, Adfortel, MMA, AdMob, IAB UK, RGA, Mobixell, Comverse, T-Mobile, 3, Sponge, Bango, and a slew of brands that wish to remain anonymous.

The bottom line: Text rules! There’s plenty of mileage left in simple SMS, and it represents a hassle-free way to start an ongoing conversation with people on their terms (remember from the findings above, people want to be in control of their advertising experiences).

There are also opportunities in location-based marketing (but not the Starbucks example, please!), mobile coupons, cross-media advertising plays with mobile at their core, and the avalanche of app stores coming online.

I can’t divulge all the results here, but I can share some thought-provoking quotes that highlight where the growth is (and isn’t), and identify the obstacles that stand in the way.

BRANDS

“If measurement was aligned with what we know from the Web or TV, it would help a lot to build confidence.”

Road ahead:

“Just between the two of us, our spend for search is by far not in the digits yet, so therefore it would be not realistic to say we would spend more on mobile advertising than for search.  That’s where we are with digital advertising, so it would totally unrealistic to say that in 2009 or 2010 we make it into the single digit share.  But it’s growing, clearly growing.”

OPERATORS

“I think there’s other opportunities such as advertising actually embedded within a widget. You could have some sort of utility widget, such as one providing weather forecasts, and there’s no reason why certain companies may not wish to have some advertising embedded within that.”

Road ahead:

“As a general principle, operators are in a particularly good position in that we can offer a variety of ways to reach the audience.  If brands want to reach a customer base, we can offer banners and messaging. We also have a fixed line web presence so we can offer traditional web advertising, in addition to magazines and billings (mailings) that we can offer. We are in a position to use mobile not only as a media property, but also as an enabler.”

AGENCIES

“I don’t think there are any real obstacles. I think it’s laziness on behalf of anyone that would suggest it’s difficult to buy. You have 5 buying points and you can hit 80 percent of the market. Call us, Yahoo, Microsoft, Orange, and AdMob. That’s it - and you’ve got the market covered. 80 percent of the inventory covered in five phone calls.”

Road ahead:

“There are a number of studies out there that show exposure to multi-channel advertising gives you exponential impact in terms of response rate and brands awareness. So the opportunity is in mobile, but also in the other channels that evolve with it.”

APPLICATIONS PROVIDERS

“The big opportunity in every country to make mobile advertising really work is to have media sales bureaus or agencies who sit in between the owners of the inventory and the advertisers. It’s in an early stage of development, and it’s also something we are going to focus on as we set up a dedicated mobile sales agency to connect the inventory to the advertising agencies.”

Road ahead:

“There are some great examples of interaction with your phone and a poster, or with your phone and TV, but that will always be a small piece of a bigger advertising picture. Core to mobile advertising is mobile messaging. Mobile is capable of delivering a message and allowing us to interact with the message. There is an interesting opportunity for advertisers to interact via messaging linked to a certain location or time, and that will develop.”

INFRASTRUCTURE COMPANIES

“Currently, we’ve got a plethora of people offering mobile advertising in the market. But when it starts to become mass-market and reaches volume, then many of those players [ad serving companies] now will not be able to translate into that volume. So, you’re going to start seeing those players just sort of die away because when mobile advertising is serious business, then you’re talking about millions of adverts and not just a few hundred thousand.”

Road ahead

“It only starts to become interesting for a carrier when the revenue they can envisage starts off at 2 percent over their overall revenue with an opportunity to grow to 10 percent. That’s the revenue that will make them sit up and listen and we’re not there yet.”

Rory Sutherland audio interview

A highlight for both me and the audience was the entertaining and educational fireside chat with Rory, whose interest in -well - us and the finer points of behavioral psychology brought much-needed balance and big-picture vision to the discussion. As he points out in this recent opinion column in New Media Age: The job at hand is to use ideas to turn human understanding into business advantage. During our interview he made it clear that mobile is a medium perfectly suited to achieve just this goal. (Listen to the audio interview here. It’s 28:40 - but time flies when you’re having fun - and this sheer genius! Unfortunately, my site isn’t up to scratch, so I had to host it on a site that belongs to Stuart Willett, MSG Biz Dev Director - so don’t let that confuse you!)

A few excerpts that made us think:

YES WE CAN!: Mobile can change people’s behavior - primarily because it takes the heavy-lifting out of doing things we might not do otherwise. Case in point: Charity. A moment of “epiphany” for Rory was the huge response to SMS campaigns asking for donations, although we have assumed that youth is not a demographic to give so generously. As he put it: “If this technology can change behavior that significantly, then who cares how good it is at advertising. Advertising is about changing opinions as a half-way house to changing their behavior.” The bottom line: If you can change people’s behavior from the get-go with mobile, then it deserves a top-notch spot in our campaigns.

LIFE-SIMPLYING: Rory’s message: Don’t dismiss branded utility because it’s unglamorous. Being brandedly useful is key. (And here is an example from Rory’s Twitter feed that illustrates this approach. The IBM Scout is a branded app that helps people get the most out of the Wimbledon 2009 Championships, providing live coverage of just about everything.

COUCH POTATOES: Let’s face it - many of us are. Rory figured this out when he was watching a line of cars at a drive-in ordering fast-food. Not one got out of the car to order at the counter - even though it was empty. Connect the dots, and it’s clear we are all a bit lazy. Apply this observation on basic human behavior to mobile and you have a powerful combination indeed! We will likely reach to the medium at hand (the personal device we have with us at all times) because it’s more convenient. “Channel preference almost trumps brand preference.” Some people may prefer Pizza Hut, but if they can order from Dominos by text, then they will likely switch for this reason. The bottom line: “Modality and modal preferences seem in a weird way to trump other things.”

WHAT’S THE POINT?: We have lost sight of what mobile can do. (A point that also came out in the research I conducted.) We’re hung up on old models and enamored of new technology, and we are missing some big opportunities. Imagine using text campaigns to encourage impulse savings instead of impulse buying. Or how about a brand that simply harnesses mobile to improve listening? As Rory pointed out: “Advertising is talking and listening. That’s a perfectly reasonable form of marketing, and mobile brilliant and you can do it in real-time.”

METRICS: We have become prisoners of our own metrics. To show us how ridiculous our obsession has become, Rory compares media buyers to alcoholics. “Alcoholics buy booze on a single metric: How much alcohol do I get per pound (GBP), and this is how media buyers buy media.”

MOBILE MATTERS:  “Mobile has been the medium of first resort and dangerous to neglect it which is probably why Google has been scared. Search has been the first place you go on the Web and mobile preempts this in some respects.”

I’ll explore mobile search in a post tomorrow, which will recount some highlights of the event, let you in on the results of a new MSG white paper,  and detail my own Mobile Search Masterclass on June 30^th in London.

By way of background, Rory’s bio:

Born in Usk, Monmouthshire in 1965, Rory read Classics at Christ’s College, Cambridge, before joining Ogilvy as a Graduate Trainee in 1988. After 18 months spent as the world’s worst account handler (as a desperate remedial measure he was once booked onto a time management course, but got the date wrong) Rory became a copywriter in June 1990. He has worked on Amex, BT, Compaq, Microsoft, IBM, BUPA, easyJet, Unilever, winning a few awards along the way. He was appointed Creative Director of OgilvyOne in 1997 and ECD in 1998. In 2005 he was appointed Vice Chairman on the Ogilvy Group in the UK in recognition of his improved timekeeping.

By an amazing stroke of luck (his brother is an academic) Rory first used the Internet in 1987. Hence he had the advantage in 1994 of knowing what it was and what it might do a few years ahead of many colleagues. Most people would have combined this knowledge of marketing and technology to make a fortune; not Rory. Instead he became the first Briton to have his credit card details stolen online, thereby losing £22.45.

In his spare time, Rory collects self-aggrandizing job titles. He was President of the Direct Jury at Cannes in 2007, and was elected President of the Institute of Practitioners in Advertising in 2009. He is also the Technology Correspondent of the Spectator, the world’s oldest English language magazine. At quiet moments in the proceedings over the next few days you may like to pay a furtive visit to his blog at http://snipr.com/da9bq

Rory is married with twin daughters of 7 (Hetty and Millie) and lives in the former home of Napoleon III in Brasted in Kent. Unfortunately in the attic.

Editor’s note: I am proud to announce that Jim Levey, formerly Director of Product Marketing for Search and Digital Advertising at Amdocs, officially joins the roster of authors and influencers contributing news, analysis and thought leadership to MSG. In this post, Jim, who attended last week’s Mobile Marketing Forum in New York City, the flagship event of the Mobile Marketing Forum series organized by the Mobile Marketing Association (MMA) and Informa, summarizes key points, important statistics and asks the question: What’s next?

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Is the global downturn for real? It may have impacted the mobile industry at all levels at the start of the year, but the message at the Mobile Marketing Forum was that mobile is bucking the trend.

Between panels and during networking breaks I learned that more brands are taking mobile more seriously. Specifically, those brands that have successfully experimented with mobile in the past are now including mobile as a key component within their marketing mix. The top-notch spot of mobile in the advertising mix - and the mix of brand success stories we heard during the sessions - are sure signs that brands are coming on board. But don’t just take my word for it. Mike Wehrs, MMA President/CEO, reported that marketers are becoming more comfortable integrating mobile within traditional campaigns. As he put it: “Mobile is moving from experimental to essential.”

Indeed, mobile advertising in North America, Europe and APAC has experienced sustained growth. While you can argue that actual growth is still marginal, the development is nonetheless a positive if we consider that budgets earmarked for traditional media have been slashed.  What do the numbers tell us? Peter Johnson, VP Market Intelligence and Strategy at MMA, reckons mobile advertising revenues will increase from $1.36 billion in 2008 to $1.7 billion by end-2009, and rise again to $2.16 billion in 2010.  Peter concluded that, based on his recent research, more consumers are accepting mobile marketing as a relevant and valuable part of their digital lifestyles.

Brands and agencies are understanding the value of mobile advertising, and becoming more adept at using mobile in innovative ways. Highlights included exciting new campaigns from Coca Cola Zero, Sunglass Hut, Kodak and Johnson & Johnson’s Baby Center, and MGM Hotel. Whether the format was text, MMS, display, rich media inside gaming, or couponing - or a combination - the point is: Mobile delivers results and a positive ROI.

A cross-media approach that stood out in my book was Coke’s campaign. The company teamed up with Nokia to emblazon Coke’s distinctive red on Nokia handsets and rounded out the offer with an assortment of Coke ringtones and wallpaper for free download.

Other campaigns illustrated how mobile can connect real world experiences with real results. Using mobile to trigger interactivity and brand interest at the point of purchase (POP) Sunglass Hut encouraged its young customers to be glamorous fashion models and capture their image with their cameraphones and upload it to the Sunglass Hut website to enter a contest to win a free trip valued at $10,000. But the real appeal of the campaign was how the brand connected with young people, thus demonstrating how mobile can be an emotional branding mechanism. Put simply, it’s an innovative and emotive way to convey the essence of the brand. It’s also a magical moment when a brand can inspire this excitement at the all-important point of purchase.

The example of a campaign run by MGM Hotel in Las Vegas showed how mobile marketing can be harnessed for effective direct marketing and sales promotion. In this scenario, the brand used a mix of mobile messaging and highway billboards to connect with consumers and allow them to book a room from the road by sending the request to a shortcode.

In addition to streamlining the reservation process and delivering a confirmation directly to the consumer’s mobile phone, the campaign also continued the one-to-one conversation with consumers when they arrived at the hotel. The result: A continuous conversation that drives continued sales. Consumers stay on the hotel premises and are invited to enjoy perks such as discounted snacks and treats, free dinners and a range of incentives around the casino. The brand’s objective was to reward customers and keep them on the premises, and the ongoing conversation via mobile text achieved this.

What do these varied success stories have in common? All these campaigns were simple, innovative and effective. A clear message to brands that they don’t need whiz-bang technology or high-cost production to drive positive results. Peggy adds: Another confirmation of the key message of my recent mobile advertising white paper: The innovation is not in advertising formats, but how we use them.

But it’s not just brands that are waking up to the pivotal role of mobile in the advertising mix. As Charles Johnson, General Manager, Microsoft Mobile, put it:  “There is growing realization that mobile is the only medium that can complete the entire marketing cycle from awareness and activation to engagement and sales.” Microsoft is walking the talk, taking the wraps off  Bing, an online search portal designed from the ground up to give consumers more relevant search results. Microsoft intends to elevate the mobile search and advertising experience in a similar fashion. In fact, the company’s search and advertising platform, which is media agnostic, is geared to serve adverts that are highly targeted and contextually relevant.

Another factor that contributes to the sustained growth of mobile advertising, and the increased interest of big-name brands, is the proliferation of smartphones. The phenomenal popularity of these devices - specifically the Apple iPhone - has triggered an astounding shift in user behavior. In fact, Paul Palmieri, CEO, Millennial Media, counts 59 million uniques (that means 59 million advertising opportunities).

The MMF showcased the progress made by brands, but it also reminded us of the work ahead to define and refine the metrics that will help marketers measure success as well as failure. Fortunately, Markus Munkler, Senior Manager, Industry Initiatives, Vodafone, could update us on some significant progress. He pointed out that there are cross-industry efforts underway in the U.S., bringing together the MMA, the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) and the U.S. Media Rating Council, to standardize ad measurement and reporting.  The initiative - which is similar to the one spearheaded by the GSMA aimed at generating cross-operator mobile advertising metrics based on usage data submitted by all five U.K. operators - is a vital step in creating a framework for global media planning.

Connect the dots, and there is a groundswell of interest and enthusiasm around mobile advertising across the ecosystem. As Paul from Millennial Media, pointed out: Following the post 9/11 downturn, online advertising enjoyed “hockey stick” growth between 2002 and 2005. Mobile advertising is likewise close to a tipping point, an impressive growth trajectory we will likely see as the global recession recedes and markets recover.

My takeaway: Kudos to the MMA for once again assembling industry leaders from all corners of the ecosystem. Communication, education, and understanding how companies up and down the value chain view the opportunities and obstacles are imperative to get the industry on track. Signs of progress are abundant and inspiring: These folks are serious about success and determined to develop standards and metrics to create a level playing field and foster global trade. Where are the brands? For the most part, brands are content to stick their toes in the water. What will move them to take the plunge? The industry must provide brands reach, standard formats across channels, standard metrics and reporting, and the ability to tap into mobile operator’s vast stockpile of subscriber intelligence for better targeting and relevancy. That’s the brief, and we shouldn’t believe that a single entity can fulfill the vision of mobile. Cooperation and collaboration are essential, and there is no market to fight over until we create it - together. Only then will the mobile advertising industry realize its full potential, and deliver an effective and engaging brand message that will revolutionize they way we communicate, respond to marketing and consume content.

TAPTU MOBILE SEARCH GENERATING 1 MILLION MOBILE SEARCHES a day.  The exclusively mobile search engine has revealed new statistics in preparation for the launch of its iPhone application. With 3.4 million unique users in April, generating a million searches a day, Taptu offers users results from sites that have been optimized for the mobile Web. The company’s blog reminds us that when Taptu started out, it counted some 10,000 searches on a mobile device.  In a press statement, Steve Ives, Founder and CEO of Taptu, reads this development as a clear indication that “there is a distinct need for a mobile-only search engine with results best viewed on mobile devices.”  Source

The bottom line: It’s encouraging to see traction for this particular approach to mobile search. Peggy adds: The question remains: Will mobile-only search, which essentially promotes a subset of wealth of content/apps/stuff out there, continue to flourish? Or will it be Web search scenarios, enabled by the usual list of suspects all over again. I have some positive views on the potential of social search in mobile, and share these via podcasts (such as this one) and my contributions to mobile search white papers.

And while we mull over the prospects for mobile search, I invite you to consider the graph below from StatCounter Global Stats (based on aggregate data collected by StatCounter on a sample exceeding 4 billion pageviews per month collected from across the StatCounter network of more than 3 million websites) showing the companies that lead in online search . Charles Knight - my esteemed colleague and the “voice of alternative search” at MSG partner site AltSearchEngines - has launched a contest and asks: What is the one word that best describes Google’s lead? (Google is the read line at the top.) “Alarming” is my pick…

Since AltSearchEngines doesn’t focus on mobile search (which is why we have partnered), allow me to share the StatCounter Global Stat chart for mobile search, and likewise ask your views. Why does Google lead the pack? (Particularly when the mobile experience offered by Google is known to be unsatisfactory…) What do YOU think?

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OPERA BROWSER EDGES OUT iPHONE IN MAY, according to Web-analytics firm StatCounter.  The Norwegian browser firm Opera Software saw its mobile browser surpass the iPhone’s popularity last month. Based on aggregate data findings on a sample of over 4 billion page views per month, the study said 24.6 percent of Internet pages downloaded to mobile devices went through Opera’s mobile browser, and 22.3 percent through the iPhone. Source

The bottom line: Although Opera would likely have lost out if the iPod Touch had been counted, these figures are still significant. It can also be read as an indicator of BlackBerry’s mobile Internet dominance.  The American smartphone is widely perceived as THE corporate device, so while Internet appetite might wane after some time for the casual user, maybe it’s BlackBerry’s leagues of loyal prosumers that keep Opera that little bit ahead of iPhone.

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MOBILE ADVERTISING IS EXPECTED TO BE WORTH $5.7 billion by 2014, according to Juniper Research. The report says a need for customer engagement and a quantifiable return on investment will drive growth in mobile advertising, but brands are still doubtful that “mobile has sufficient reach to warrant substantive ad spend.” 

Mobile will still account for only 1.5 percent of total global ad spend by 2014. Jupiter points out that, although this year will see the mobile Internet become the most popular delivery channel for advertisers, CPCs and CPMs have fallen sharply over the past year.  But there is a bright side: Response rates in mobile advertising remain substantially higher than those in other media. Source

The bottom line: A mix of good and bad news on mobile advertising from Juniper, and another voice supporting changes many in the industry agree are critical:  More engaging mobile advertising campaigns and agreement on key performance indicators and measurement tools. Let’s hope Juniper’s advertising spend proportions are a just a miserly prediction.  Peggy adds: After all, word is - and this was expressed at this week’s Mobile Marketing Association (MMA) event in NYC - that the industry is only waiting for a few solid success stories to drive significant ad spend. More on the mood/news at the MMA event in a special report from Jim Levey, a former mobile advertising executive at Amdocs, whom I am proud to report has joined our roster of authors and correspondents. Jim will be tracking and commenting on mobile advertising industry developments that matter.

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AVERAGE MOBILE MARKETING BUDGETS WILL INCREASE 26 PERCENT this year, even as overall marketing expenditures decline by 7 percent, according to new Mobile Marketing Association (MMA) research presented at its New York conference. 

But although mobile is fighting against the downward momentum of spending, at 1.8 percent it still only makes up a small fraction of total marketing budgets. The MMA projects that mobile ad spending will grow from $1.7 billion this year to $2.16 billion in 2010.  MMA says SMS campaigns remain the most common at 66 percent, followed by having a mobile Web (53 percent), and mobile email marketing (33 percent). Source

The bottom line:  This research puts a more positive spin on the state of the market (as opposed to Juniper’s rather sobering report above). That mobile marketing spends are going up during a generally down time can only be encouraging.  However, the challenge must remain in convincing brands to dedicate a greater proportion of their budget to an exciting new medium, whether that’s through tried and trusted messaging campaigns, or using richer new mobile media.  Growth and innovative mobile development still needs risk-takers and brave allocation of budget from the big-name brands.

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GLOBAL MOBILE VIDEO USERS WILL total more than 534 million by 2014, according to a forecast issued by Pyramid Research.  It says a strong percentage of mobile net additions will come from emerging markets. The study adds that mobile video subscribers will rise roughly 8.5 percent by 2014, citing the availability of improved devices and networks as the keys to driving adoption. The Asia Pacific market will lead the mobile video growth spurt, claiming 281 million subscriptions by 2014, and India will also experience a dramatic uptake. Source

The bottom line: Mobile video has only very recently begun to penetrate western markets, thanks to the improved user experience and larger screens available with the latest smartphones.  Although eastern markets are ahead of the game in this respect, and the projections largely focus on these geographies, the predictions still seem bold. The provision of adequate bandwidth and the development of LTE technologies will be critical for the global take-up of mobile video, whether it’s accessed via streaming, downloads, or by accessing the 3G Video Call channel.

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NOKIA’S POPULARITY IS FADING FAST AMONGST TEENS reports online teen hangout, Habbo Hotel.  A survey asked 112,000 teenagers in 30 countries to choose their top cellphone brand, and just 21 percent of respondents chose Nokia, down from 29 percent last year. Source

The bottom line: The Habbo survey numbers are reported to have excluded key emerging markets (such as India and China, where Nokia is market leader), and may also have had a strong bias towards respondents from America, where Nokia’s market share is much less.  However, there’s probably some truth in the suggestion that Nokia could do with re-energizing their brand for the global youth market.

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NEARLY 60 PERCENT OF U.S. MOBILE PHONE OWNERS TEXT, with 94 percent of teens the largest user group, and 20-somethings at 87 percent.  So say results from the second annual Vlingo Consumer Mobile Messaging Habits Report. Among those in their 40s, usage jumped from 56 percent in 2008 to 64 percent this year, and for those in their 50s it jumped from 38 percent to 46 percent. The report explains that texting is also gaining on sending/receiving calls as the primary use of mobile phones, with 35 percent of all respondents using their phones for texting more than for calls. Almost half of respondents do both in equal numbers.  Text message volumes have risen across all age groups, although the 13 to 19 age group remains the most active with an average of more than 500 texts per month.  It also claims that more than a quarter of mobile users drive while texting. Source

The bottom line: The rise of messaging in the U.S. appears undaunted in this report, with ever-climbing numbers not always reflecting responsible use of America’s favorite non-voice mobile communication channel.

Continuing with Part 2 of my audio interview with Dan Harple, CEO of GeoSentric, the company behind GyPSii, a digital mobile lifestyle application. But look beneath the hood (and listen in to Part 1 of the series) and GyPSii isn’t just another company jockeying for position in the location-aware mobile social networking space. It’s got its eye on the prize: Using our location, our social graph (because we are members of the GyPSii community), and our judgment to index the world around us. Google may be about organizing the world’s information; GyPSii is about organizing the real world.

What to do with a people-powered, user-generated index of the world out there? Follow in Google’s footsteps and sell advertising on top of it.

As I wrote in my last post, GyPSii has cleverly harnessed PlaceMe, a primary function of GyPSii that allows you to create a point of interest (POI), add your content (image, video, audio, text), add your current or last geo-location, categorize/tag/describe the POI, and submit to the server in real time to a personal or publicly designated folder in your MyPlaces (your record of points of interest).

To get this to Google scale, GyPSii needs a lot of people out there indexing the world with their mobile phones. It’s an ambitious strategy, but not far-fetched. Dan’s forecast models tell him that a company with 7 million users, each doing 2 PlaceMes a month would produce an index in the first year that would be “significantly larger than the Google file system in its first year.” (Dan expects GyPSii to be on “between 80 and 100 million devices in the coming 12 months.”)

There are no stats on active users as a percentage of that total. But GyPSii members tend to be hyperactive when it comes to PlaceMe, creating and tagging “15-20 PlaceMes per month.” Every time GyPSii members do that, they are adding a new indexed item to what the company calls the Osmotic File System (OFS).

Where does mobile advertising come in? It’s already work in progress in China. In fact, GyPSii has a lot of progress to report in China - period. As Dan sees it: “To have an ad-based model, you have to have an audience.” To reach more members (and encourage them to index the world around them) GyPSii’s has this week launched the Java version of its application, with both Chinese and English language support.

The expectation, according to the press release, is that the new app will “appeal to the 70 percent of the 650 million phone owners in China who own Java-based phones.” By way of background, GyPSii is already locally available in China for the major operators China Mobile and China Unicom, for download on compatible Java phones.   GyPSii is also available globally across a wide range of devices, including Samsung, Nokia, LG, Apple iPhone, and BlackBerry smartphones.

How does GyPSii plan to make the jump from critical mass to relevant advertising? What is the rev share model for partners (handset makers and carriers) who get on board? And what is the experience for members that use the ExploreMe function to search the world around them (and so trigger the delivery of an ad on their mobile device)? These are just a few of the questions I explored with Dan in this final segment of our podcast interview. (It’s a little longer than my usual interviews, but I felt detail was necessary to fully understand the interplay between search and advertising GyPSii-style.

Listen to the podcast here. [20:27]

Excerpts from the interview:

PEOPLE-POWERED SEARCH: Dan is a great believer (as I am) in social search on mobile. As he pus it: “This is the ultimate user generated content business model ever.” With patented technology in place (as part of the PlaceMe function), the next step is scale. “It’s got to be at scale because if our goal is to build that index, we’ve got to get lots of people to use the app.” Downloading is only part of it. Bundling is the business model that drives results.

WATERFALL MODEL: This model sits at the core of how GyPSii does deals and shares the money. “It starts with OEM manufacturers, and then to ODM manufacturers. So we go and get bundle relationships with them to get on-deck.” After GyPSii seals the deals to be on the phones, “the water falls, [and] the next layer is the carrier layer.”  Then, as you begin to get scale, you use something like Open Experience, the API, to further connect all of the social networks.” And what do handset makers get? Future revenue. As Dan puts it: “If you’re a phone manufacturer, for example, once you sell your phone, it’s a done deal. You have to make a new one and sell it.  We’ve got a business model that enables a phone to be an annuity generating device for a manufacturer, and that’s all the downstream advertising that results out of any given phone. So, that way, every device they make is an investment in a future revenue stream.”

MOBILITY AD DELIVERY: “In selecting GyPSii, they’ve not just selected this app to be bundled; they’ve selected the whole GyPSii back- end system, which also is a contextual search and add delivery system.  So, strategically we’ve been selected for mobility based advertising delivery by some of the world’s largest manufacturers and I think that’s kind of a strategic place to be because they believe in this vision….They understand mobility, [and] they don’t appreciate a top-down play from other companies coming in trying to do a land grab on their customer base.”

ADVERTISING EXPERIENCE: It’s a lot like the mobile search we know, except the index is created by people and the ads - well - don’t look like ads. It all starts with a function called ExploreMe. From the website: “ExploreMe allows you to find places by keyword, category, proximity based across the general public, by your friends in your social network, or limited to your own personal points of interest. The resultant places allow you to see full context of photos, video, audio, text and ratings by the owners, contact the owner of the place (dependent on user settings), allow you to map the place, and with navigation allow you to get to the place.” Essentially, ExploreMe is what Dan calls the first step in “planet search or experience search.” You get search results and ads that are sold into that index in the same way that ads are sold into the Google index.  How do the ads look? A lot like content. But you could also get a coupon. No matter what you get, when you make a selection it triggers an advertising-based transaction - and a pay-off to the handset manufacturer.

MORE THAN MOBILES: Who said mobile advertising has to be delivered to mobile phones? GyPSii’s goal is to be on every device out there. “That’s not just phones, it’s also netbooks. We’ve got a relationship with Intel; we’ve been selected as part of their reference platform for all mobile Internet devices and netbooks.  There are other ways to be mobile besides just your phone, so every mobile device that has an ability to be connected to the Internet, we want to be on.”

MOBILE ANALYTICS: Advertising on a social network (as I have pointed out in my recent release white paper Mobile Advertising For the Masses, sponsored by Bango, which you can download here) provides brands access to key data, such as gender, preference, and whatever else members are willing to share. “For privacy reasons, [GyPSii analytics] will never say who a person is or anything else, but it will report things like gender, age, what other social networks that person is in. Think of a 3-D cluster map of the kind of people that are interested in that product, it helps them [advertisers] in real-time know where they should place their ads.” The feedback loop is simple: “We’ll help them know more about who’s interested in their products.”

WHAT’S NEXT?: “We’ve been in hunting mode and now we go into gathering mode.  So, where are we going? We’re going to continue to hunt relentlessly.  We will not yield until we sign every major OEM and ODM and carrier in the world - that’s hunting.” Execution goes hand-in-hand with innovation. We spoke shortly before the iPhone app launch, which Dan explains in the interview. Beyond that, we can look for a “release schedule that enhances that new user experience on all the other devices we’ve got.” Finally, GyPSii will expand what it calls the GyPSiiPlex, “all the data centers around the world adding capacity and fine tuning our algorithms.” (Dan calls the company’s core algorithm PlaceRank, a word play on PageRank.)

My take: My own mobile advertising research for a variety of projects including Mobile Advertising Research U.K., and MSG’s own publication/online resource MobiAD World Focus, brings me in contact with C-Level executives from a mix of mobile operators, agencies, brands, ad networks, and enablers. The questions on the top of the list: What is the value chain and who are the mouths we have to feed? The advance of companies like GyPSii tells us two things: We have to re-think how we define mobile advertising (Is it about brand message? Or is the end-game for advertisers simply the chance to communicate with social networks like GyPSii?), and the value chain we assume is coming together to deliver it.

Clearly, mobile social networks are making the shift from meeting place to market place, and having search and advertising baked in (in addition to all its other features/functionality) has earned GyPSii a prime position in the emerging mobile search and advertising business ecosystem.

Special thanks (again) to GyPSii for hosting my podcast until I can upload my content to the cloud and make it available to MSG readers via iTunes. It’s work in progress and coming soon!

In the next podcast, I look at a new app store approach from Bytemobile. For background I will also feature the video in the video player in the MSG sidebar.

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If you have an interest in being considered for an interview for MobiAD World Focus, please contact me directly or send an email to my assistant Andrea Henninge (andrea@msearchgroove.com).If you are interested in taking advantage of this platform to contribute a sponsored column, case study, or company profile, then please contact Stuart Willett, MSG Director, Business Development, at sw@morianamediagroup.com or by phone on +44  7734 315 506.

Disclaimer: Bango is an MSG supporter.

The popularity of location-based services applications - particularly their top-notch position in a variety of app stores - indicates that location apps are crowd-pleasers, but are they really game-changing? Nate Janewit - an MSG columnist and a computer scientist at Stanford University sharply focused on the larger issues around LBS - suggests companies need to think differently about location in order to wring more value out of their vast stores of data.

The recent report on trends in location-aware apps from Apple’s App Store, Google’s Android Marketplace, and Blackberry’s App World released by Skyhook Wireless, itself a provider of a patented hybrid system of location awareness, reveals a buoyant market for LBS apps. Indeed, the Apple App Store was found to have the greatest number of location-based applications, at over 2,300, and the highest percentage of paid for location apps, at over 75 percent. 67 percent of Blackberry apps are paid, and 80 percent of Android Marketplace apps are free.

Clearly, location apps are popular, as their increasing ubiquity and popularity across a variety of app stores demonstrates. But move past the hype and the excitement generated by the flurry of activity in the space, and it becomes clear that location services - by themselves - are not game-changing.

Location-aware data is not enough

Indeed, mobile location-based services and social networking companies such as Loopt, Pelago, and Sense Networks have invested a great deal to achieve their vision, which revolves around the provision of an array of consumer and community services supported by socially-tagged, location-aware data stores. The data they have is impressive and the expansion plans they pursue are ambitious. However, they also face formidable competition from Internet giants (Google, MySpace, Facebook, and Yelp) that have already aggregated their own large sets of useful social content, and are anxious to extend their reach to mobile.

Can companies compete on location data? Many players are positioning themselves to do just this. However, I submit that location services - and the structures and systems in place to deliver them - represent little more than an incremental innovation on top of the immense stockpiles of location data and content that are largely under the control of established Web companies and heavyweights. As a result, these Web giants are well-positioned to leverage location data to mobilize their offers and ultimately dominate the marketplace. There are, however, options and strategies mobile location services companies can employ to win the game - even though, as I argue in this is column, location services on their own are far from game-changing.

Admittedly, not everyone shares my view. Sam Altman, founder of Loopt, told me in a recent interview that he strongly believes in the value of innovation in location-based services and their central position in personal mobility experiences. A prime example is the company’s iPhone app. Loopt’s Mix feature enables users -without compromising their personal privacy - to connect with other users nearby. What’s more, users can find places nearby on Yelp and find what their friends on Loopt are saying about those places.

Beyond this interesting user experience, Loopt’s location-related content is thin, and therefore isn’t terribly useful - yet. However, it’s not so much the company’s progress with their service offering that interests me as much as its business priorities.

Specifically, Loopt has correctly honed in on two features/functionalities which are fundamental to all location-based services moving forward.

1. Connecting users to each other (using location in addition to other social filtering parameters).
2. Connecting users to information (using location as an additional input to search).

The intersection between location and search on a mobile is particularly promising, and has caught the attention of location services providers including Loopt, Sense Networks (CitySense), and Pelago (Where service), as well as mobile search services providers including ChaCha, a company that connects users to a human agents trained to provide answers to their SMS text search queries and, more recently, voice-activated queries.

However, these players are all pursuing business models built around a broad but rather general vision of what location-based services are - and can be.

In their view, location can be to mobile search and social networking what PageRank currently is to Internet search. Put in this perspective, location is potentially disruptive. What’s more, the companies that control the data stores (thus the capabilities to connect users to information they require, and to each other) are positioned to rock the industry.

Location information is power, both to the companies that deliver it and the consumers, who benefit from the tremendous amount of utility it provides.

Love the restaurant where you just ate? Review it, post it online, and alert everyone (or just your friends) nearby to try the place, all while you’re waiting for the check. Want to find a good barber shop in Mountain View, California? Ask a question, direct it only to users in downtown Mountain View, and be alerted when you receive an answer from someone there. The immediacy, intimacy, relevance, and quality of such services make them very exciting for consumers.

And let’s not forget the potential for the delivery of more relevant, location-aware mobile advertising, which is the main attraction for local stores, clubs, restaurants, businesses, and organizations hoping to attract consumers to their premises.

The location tools and technologies used here to record what we do and where we are (all the while paying careful attention to personal privacy concerns) as part of our day-to-day routine provide advertisers, agencies, and mobile operators a potentially much deeper understanding of consumer habits, insights that can greatly increase the value of mobile advertising linked to location-based services. Mobile contextual advertising is already de rigueur, but location has the potential to make mobile advertising more relevant, more personalized, and thus much more effective.

But it doesn’t stop there. Adding location on top of traditional information sources we know from the Internet provides online companies with further opportunity to personalize content for their users on the move. Location can also boost the quality and value of online recommendations (where the system delivers suggestions based on an implicit understanding of user content preferences and requirements) and search (where an explicit query triggers the delivery of additional related results).

Why location-based services are an incremental innovation

Clearly, location services which connect users to each other, or information, or both have the best chances for success. However, there are several major obstacles that make this a difficult space for companies - particularly startups - to gain traction.

1. Users can resist change: Connecting users to each other and introducing them to new social networking communities could be tough, particularly if they are loyal to the communities where they are already members. The social networking space is already nearing saturation point, at least in the U.S. and the U.K.
2. User-generated content matters: Without a large data store of geotagged content, there is little value to a location-based service. Yelp and CitySearch, companies that have large data stores of reviews, listings, phone numbers, and shop information indexed by location, have the advantage here.
3. Search needs location: Developing effective mobile search will likely require heavy-duty algorithms and design (that factor location and context into the equation), and a large infrastructure to deliver.
4. Google is on an expansion course: Companies - particularly startups - face strong competition from Google. Latitude, a service that allows users to share their location with their friends on GTalk, can be read as Google’s bid for market supremacy. Is Google over-reaching? Not if we consider the company’s ability, through Latitude, to leverage legions of clusters for search to deliver more relevant information culled from a wider data set than any startup could ever stockpile. Furthermore, Google’s dominance in contextual advertising, which it is trying to extend to the mobile space, allows it to reach out to a wide network of advertisers and businesses eager to attract traffic to their sites and tap in to the potentially lucrative Long Tail of search queries. While even Google will have difficulties as it sharpens its focus on selling paid search advertising to the hyperlocal market, its brand recognition and reach may allow it to make considerable inroads and thus pose a significant threat to a broad mix of location services providers and mobile ad networks.
5. Brands need trust: Users are generally not accustomed to sharing their location data with brands and merchants. To convince consumers they trust brands with their personal information, all communications (particularly brand messages delivered via mobile marketing campaigns) will need to be permission-based and comply with the Global Code of Conduct, guidelines introduced by the Mobile Marketing Association (MMA), a global non-profit trade organization established to lead the growth of mobile marketing and its associated technologies. Put another way, brands best positioned to achieve their business objectives, and reach mainstream users instead of just early adopters, are ones that respect our privacy and have our respect. That narrows the candidates down to established big-name brands, companies that we know and trust.
6. Content without consent is spam: The avalanche of new content linked to contextual data (what we do and where) opens the door wide open to the delivery of spam and the spread of fraud. All companies have to do their utmost to attack this problem at the root. However, many startups will likely find they lack the infrastructure to keep this issue in check.

Put another way, making a mark in the location services space requires more than the ability to pick up on a user’s location. Location services require the professional and reliable interplay of systems and services enabling search, content delivery and discovery, social networking and communication, and mobile marketing and advertising. What’s more, players in this space must connect and collaborate with a complex value chain that includes advertisers, enablers, operators, consumers, and companies we have yet to identify.

Given these factors, the players that emerge dominant in this market are likely to be the names we know from the Internet: Facebook, MySpace, Google, and Yelp. Why? Because, as I have pointed out: It’s not about location; it’s about the data and the networks that power location services. Internet giants have experience, communities, content, and search. Location is just another ingredient they can add to their already successful recipe for success. Put simply, location serves as an additional input, paving the way for these companies to provide interesting new applications - applications that fundamentally leverage the assets already out there on the Web.

Smart strategies for clever newcomers

It may be a bleak picture that I paint for mobile location companies and startups; I would like to point out that I am a believer in the vision behind location based services. However, given my experience and common sense, I cannot ignore the barriers that prevent newcomers from changing the game.

But there are actions startups can take to ensure they nonetheless secure a central spot in the merging location services value chain. It may require a rethink, but the potential rewards make it well worth the effort.

I would therefore suggest startups refocus their strategy to bring more value to users, boost their competitiveness in the process. I would advise executing one of the following options:

1. Mashup: tackle the “cold start” problem and build up your data store (and follow the lead of services such as Loopt and Where) by providing content from larger Web services such as Yelp, Evite, Eventbrite, and CitySearch. It’s a great way to connect your users to valuable information immediately. What’s more, there’s an opportunity for one or two location-based “data aggregators” - companies that use information from other services and present it via a unified interface on the mobile device. (However, there is only room for a few companies in this space since the barriers to entry are low and little prevents Internet giants from entering the mobile space (on their own) themselves. Yelp and Google lead the group of Internet companies staking out their mobile territory by releasing location-aware apps for the iPhone and Android devices. A successful play in this niche would therefore require companies to outmaneuver both the mashups offered by other competitors aiming to be data aggregators and the individual siloed applications offered by the Internet companies that have the data and determination to play in mobile.
2. Killer search: It may seem unlikely, but search can be decisive and disruptive, particularly as the integration of location information will likely cause a seismic shift in how users interact with the results they receive on their mobile phone. Keep in mind that, when Google began promoting their brand of search engine, observers joked that the race had already been run and won by the likes of Lycos, HotBot, Yahoo, and AltaVista. My message: If a company makes a fundamental improvement in search by using location data, it would represent a sea-change in contextual search and shift the balance of power away from the current market leaders.
3. Big money: Location can enhance the value and effectiveness of advertising and marketing, adding a new dimension to how companies communicate their brand message to consumers. It may even be possible to use location information to provide better advertising that will appeal to users. As this recent post on MSearchGroove points out: Advertising is indeed content. Location can enable the delivery of truly compelling content. At the other end of the spectrum, we might ask ourselves if it is not possible that location could even pave the way for a whole new paradigm around the effective monetization of content and services that does not involve ad-funding. The value of receiving the right information at the right time and in the right context may be so valuable that people will pay for it.

In conclusion, a bright future awaits location services startups that think outside the box. Granted, it’s a tough market with ever tougher competition, but a strategy built on one (or all) of the options I present will help startups stand up to the Internet giants. I strongly believe location and location-based services are the future. I enjoy hearing about scrappy, ambitious startups, and their success should encourage all companies in this space to execute on the strategies I have outlined. The strategies may vary but the pay-off is clear: Companies that position themselves now to leverage the power of location will lead the way in delivering contextual relevance across mobile search, mobile advertising, and a potentially lucrative range of mobile services we cannot even imagine.

About the author:

Web: http://www.linkedin.com/in/njanewit
Nate Janewit is a search and mobile technologist and a Silicon Valley resident. His career thus far has spanned Microsoft, Google, Kosmix, Efficient Frontier, and research in Japan and at Stanford. He is an analyst of emerging technology and media and actively contributes to developments in the search and search advertising space.